世界のコンテナー市場2014/15

◆英語タイトル:Container Market Annual Review and Forecast 2014/15
◆商品コード:DREWS50305
◆発行会社(調査会社):Drewry Shipping Consultants
◆発行日:2014年10月
◆ページ数:※お問い合わせください。
◆レポート言語:英語
◆レポート形式:PDF
◆納品方法:Eメール
◆調査対象地域:グローバル
◆産業分野:輸送
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【レポートの概要】

The container industry has been going through huge changes, with the formulation of new operational alliances taking this to a new level. So now, more than ever, accurate and insightful industry knowledge is needed, which is exactly what the Container Market Annual Review and Forecast provides.

Key areas covered:

World container trade and port volumes
Global supply and demand
Trade Route analysis
Freight rates and carrier financials
The charter market and S&P
Drewry’s Container Market Review takes a look back at the developments over the last year and how they sit within the broader picture of the container market. Drewry continues to enhance the analysis provided, with forecasts through to 2018.

The Container Market Annual Review and Forecast 2013/14 is one of Drewry Maritime Research’s annual reports, providing a complete review of the industry whilst also presenting detailed forecasts for key metrics. This report is also available as part of the Container Forecaster set of reports. It forms the 3rd quarter analysis of this annual subscription, released on a quarterly basis.


World container trade and port volumes
Global container throughput during the second quarter of 2014 grew 5.5%, which is the fastest growth in the past eleven quarters. Drewry’s analysis of current figures suggest that the current strength of traditional consumption markets within North America and Europe are primarily driving strong demand of the container business.

To further understand how the market is moving you are provided with analysis that covers:

Estimated annual growth in container activity by region 2014
Comparison of Chinese Vs global port growth 2009 – 2014
Estimated world container traffic and its components 2011 – 2014
Estimated development of container transhipment activity by region 1980 – 2013
Forecast development of world container traffic 2014 – 2018
Quarterly forecast of container growth by region 2014 – 1Q16


Global supply and demand
As of July 2014 the global cellular fleet stood at 5,080 vessels with total capacity of 17.6 million teu. Although the capacity of the fleet increased by about 883,000 teu in the preceding 12 months, the overall number of vessels reduced, indicating a trend towards bigger ships.

With regards to the supply-demand balance, carriers continue to deploy their assets well in the core East-West trade lanes. However the major fall-out continues to be the effect of cascading of tonnage into the key North – South trades.

Further analysis available on:

World cellular containership fleet by size range
Container fleet development forecasts 2014 – 2017
Order book by size range
Delivery breakdown of unadjusted orderbook 2014 – 2018
East-West & North-South trades slow steaming monitor
Forecast global supply – demand balance 2014 – 2016


Trade route analysis
Here the report looks at the main trade axis, with detailed analysis on each provided. Including:
Average trade utilisation levels
Capacity development to 2015
Forecasted trade volumes through to 2015
Current trade route drivers and dynamics


The East-West routes covered include; Transatlantic and Transpacific, Asia-North Europe, Asia-Mediterranean

The North-South trade lanes covered include; Australasia, South and West Africa, East and West Coast South America

This in-depth analysis is further supplemented by a detailed Trade Capacity and Service Summary for each separate route, for both East-West routes and North-South routes.


Freight rates and carrier financials
The all important topic of freight rates and carrier financials is covered in a dedicated chapter. On the back of a recent recovery in the second quarter of 2014 the report looks at what the future holds for the industry.
Nominal global carrier income 2011 – 2014
Estimate income development on East-West trades by quarter (2012 – 2014)
Forecast estimated average unit rate, global container market (2014 - 2015)
Estimated carrier industry EBIT profit/loss and EBIT margins 2Q10 – 2Q14
Financial results of selected carriers , 1H2013-14

The charter market and S&P
In addition to analysis on the container market, Drewry’s Annual Container Market Review and Forecast provides further analysis on the supporting areas of the market, such as ship chartering and sales. This chapter provides details on the development and outlook of the charter market alongside up to date sales and purchase figures.

Analysis is presented on:
Average one-year time charter rates, 2009-14
Recorded monthly time charter levels July 2012 – July 2014
Average slot charter rates, 2009 – 2014
Development of second-hand prices 2009 – 2014
Recent container sale & purchase activity
Newbuild & demolition prices

【レポートの目次】

1. Executive summary: What is recovery?

2. World container trade and port volumes
• World container port traffic
• Forecast of container traffic activity

3. Global supply
• The current fleet
• The containership orderbook
• Demolition
• Forecast containership fleet development

4. Supply-demand balance
• Recent developments
• Slow steaming
• Forecast supply-demand balance
• Idle tonnage

5. Trade route analysis
• East-West axis
• Transpacific trade
• Asia-North Europe trade
• Asia-Mediterranean
• Transatlantic trade
• North-South trade lanes
• Australasian trades
• East Coast South American trades
• West Coast South American trades
• South African trades
• West African trades
• The new alliances
• The intra-Asian trade lanes

6. Freight rates and carrier financials
• Global industry accounts
• Freight rate development and forecast
• Profitability
• Bunker developments

7. The charter market and S&P
• Charter market development
• The charter market outlook
• Sale and purchase

Appendices
• Trade capacity tables (excel format)
• Containership newbuilding orders from 2012
• European trades – bunker surcharges developments
• Port throughput quarterly comparison – 2Q14
• Definition of regions by country
• Port code abbreviations
• Supply/demand balance methodology and background
• North-South routes, trade characteristics
• Glossary of terms
• Drewry

Tables
• Monthly year-on-year global growth in throughput volumes
• Estimated annual growth in container activity by region
• Estimated annual growth in container activity by region
• Container traffic seasonality
• Monthly growth in container throughputs at Chinese ports
• Comparison of Chinese versus global port growth
• Chinese regional throughput, split into international and domestic volumes,
2011-14
• International and domestic cargo volumes of top eight Chinese ports,
2011-2014
• Annual growth in domestic and foreign containerised trade of top 8 Chinese
ports
• Share of foreign import/export volumes among top 8 Chinese ports, 2011-2014
• Estimated world container traffic and its components
• Estimated development of global empty and transhipment volumes, 1980-2013
• Estimated development of container transhipment activity by region
• Estimated transhipment volumes at main hub ports, 2013
• Estimated 2013 world container trades by route
• Estimated 2013 world container trades by market sector
• Real GDP growth in major economies
• Consumer Confidence Index
• China manufacturing outlook summary
• Forecast base-case, medium-term growth in container activity by region
• Forecast base-case, medium-term container activity by region
• Quarterly forecast of container growth by region
• Quarterly forecast of container activity by region
• Forecast development of world container traffic
• World cellular containership fleet by size range
• Recent developments of world cellular container fleet
• Historical cellular containership fleet development 2000-2014
• Containerships keep getting bigger
• Containership fleet ownership splits, as of July 2014
• Top 20 independent shipowners , July 2014
• Top 20 ocean carrier owned fleets, July 2014
• Unadjusted containership orderbook by size and scheduled delivery year
• Recent container asset market activity
• Sales for demolition, 2009-2014
• Forecast adjusted containership fleet development
• Adjusted global containership orderbook, 2011-18
• Vessel delivery schedule for 2014
• East-West trades slow steaming monitor
• Estimated service speeds, Asia-North Europe trade
• Estimated service speeds, Asia-WCNA trade
• North-South trades slow steaming monitor
• Forecast global supply-demand balance
• Forecast development of East-West headhaul supply-demand balance
• Estimated global idle fleet, 8 Sep 2014
• Geographical breakdown of idle fleet, Sep 2014
• Global summary of idle fleet under and above 4,000 teu
• Annualised effective capacity on the headhaul East-West trades
• Summary of selected major East-West services, quarter by quarter,
commencing 3Q14
• Two-way capacity deployed on the major East-West trade routes
• Capacity increases on the principal East-West trades
• Development of Transpacific capacity, 2011-2015
• Transpacific trade – forecast containerised cargo volumes by quarter,
2011-2018
• US port volumes 2013 versus 2014
• Transpacific trade – estimated quarterly supply-demand position, 2011-15
• Development of North Europe/Far East capacity, 2011-15
• Forecast development of North Europe-Far East container trade volumes
2011-18
• North Europe-Far East trade – estimated quarterly supply-demand position,
2011-15
• Mediterranean-Far East trade development of capacity 2011-15
• Mediterranean-Far East trade – estimated and forecast containerised cargo
volumes, 2011-18
• Mediterranean/Far East trade – estimated supply-demand position 2011-15
• Development of Transatlantic capacity, 2011-15
• Transatlantic trade – forecast containerised cargo volumes by quarter, 2011-18
• Transatlantic trade – estimated quarterly supply-demand position, 2011-15
• Summary of North-South services, commencing 3Q14
• Capacity deployed on the major North-South trade routes
• Capacity changes on the principal North-South trades
• Australia/Far East containerised cargo volumes, 2007-2014
• Development of N Europe and Mediterranean-East Coast South America
capacity 2011-15
• Development of N America-East Coast South America capacity 2011-15
• Development of Asia-East Coast South America capacity 2011-15
• Two-way cargo volumes in the ECSA trades, 2007-14
• Average trade route utilisation in the main ECSA trades, 2011-14
• N Europe and Mediterranean-East Coast South America trade – forecast
containerised volumes, 2011-15
• N Europe and Mediterranean-East Coast South America trade – estimated
half-yearly supply-demand position 2011-15
• N America-East Coast South America trade – forecast containerised volumes,
2011-15
• N America-East Coast South America trade – estimated half-yearly supply-
demand position 2011-15
• Asia-East Coast South America trade – forecast containerised volumes,
2011-15
• Asia-East Coast South America trade – estimated half-yearly supply-demand
position
• Service breakdown by alliance in East-West trades, July 2014
• ULCV breakdown by alliances in East-West trades, July 2014
• Major intra-Asian operators, September 2014
• Selected intra-Asian volumes, 1H14 versus 1H13
• Estimated containerised volumes, China-Japan trade, 2011-14
• Orderbook for intra-Asian operators for own account, July 2014
• Deployment of vessels of 4,000 teu and above in intra-Asian trades, mid-2014
• Annual carryings of intra-Asian operators, 2006-13
• Nominal global carrier income, 2010-14
• Estimated income development on East/West trades by quarter
• Historical estimated average unit rate, East/West container market, 2010-2014
• Development of container freight rates by route of selected carriers
• Forecast estimated average unit rate, East/West container market
• Forecast estimated average unit rate, global container market
• Development of selected carriers’ quarterly average unit revenues, 2010-2014
• Intra-Asian average quarterly freight rates on selected routes, 2013-14
• Financial results of selected carriers, second-quarter 2013-14
• Financial results of selected carriers, first-half 2013-14
• Carryings of selected carriers, annual 2012-13, first-half 2013-14
• Development of IFO (180) bunker costs, 2007-2014
• Actual recorded fixtures, 2Q14
• Average one-year time charter rates, 2009-14
• Average actual time charter rates and average period duration, 2009-14
• Average slot charter rates, 2009-14
• Development of second-hand prices
• Selected second-hand vessel sales during 2Q14
• Recent containers sale & purchase activity
• Estimated development of newbuilding prices
• Demolition prices
• A6.1 Major factors affecting the supply/demand balance

Figures
• Regional port handling growth, 2014-15
• Adjusted containership orderbook
• Recent orders, split by vessel size
• Comparison between East and West and global supply/demand indices
• East-West trade spot rates, January-September 2014
• North Europe spot rates versus hedged rates
• Lagging indicators for carrier profitability
• Containerised seaborne trade volumes 2013, main East-West routes
• Containerised seaborne volumes 2013, main North-South trades
• Containerised seaborne trade volumes 2013, intra-regional trades
• Containership fleet development
• Orderbook by size range
• Recent orders split by vessel size
• Delivery breakdown of unadjusted orderbook, 2014-18
• Estimated adjusted containership fleet growth
• Comparison of adjusted and unadjusted global container fleets, 2011-2017
• Annual growth of global container fleets under and above 8,000 teu nominal
capacity, 2012-2018
• Slow steaming and fuel prices
• Estimated average Asia-N Europe service speeds (knots), 2013-14
• Estimated average Asia-WCNA service speeds (knots), 2013-14
• The impact of inactivity on the global supply-demand balance
• Forecast supply-demand gap – global and East-West markets
• Asia-North Europe – westbound import region growth, Jan-Jul 2012-2014
• North Europe-Asia – eastbound export region growth, Jan-Jul 2013-2014
• Mediterranean v North Europe westbound rate differential
• Asia-Mediterranean – westbound import region growth, Jan-Jul 2012-2014
• Mediterranean-Asia – eastbound export region growth, Jan-Jul 2013-2014
• ULCVs by alliance, including all ships in orderbook
• Capacity shares of 4 mega-alliances in Asia-North Europe trade
• Capacity shares of 4 mega-alliances in Asia-Med trade
• Capacity shares of 4 mega-alliances in Asia-WCNA trade
• Capacity shares of 4 mega-alliances in Asia-ECNA trade
• Average revenue per teu of selected major carriers, 2010-2014
• Weighted freight rates and supply/demand index comparison on
East-West trades
• Freight rates, unit costs and supply-demand balance
• Development of intra-Asian 20ft rates, 2Q13-2Q14
• Development of intra-Asian 40ft rates, 2Q13-2Q14
• First half 2014 scorecard: comparison of EBIT margins, revenue of
selected carriers
• Estimated carrier industry EBIT profit/loss and EBIT margins, 2Q10-2Q14
• Selected carriers' volume, unit revenue development, 1H 2014
• Medium carriers still able to compete on unit costs
• Survival of the biggest
• Lagging indicators for carrier profitability
• Forward looking indicators for carrier profitability
• Recent developments in spot market freight rates and fuel prices
• North Europe spot rates versus hedged rates
• Recorded monthly time charter levels
• Average fixture period
• Average fixture periods by vessel size, 2Q2014

【レポートのキーワード】

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