季節性インフルエンザの疫学的予測

【英語タイトル】EpiCast Report: Seasonal Influenza - Epidemiology Forecast to 2025

GlobalDataが出版した調査資料(GDHCER127-16)・商品コード:GDHCER127-16
・発行会社(調査会社):GlobalData
・発行日:2016年11月1日
・ページ数:88
・レポート言語:英語
・レポート形式:PDF
・納品方法:Eメール
・調査対象地域:グローバル
・産業分野:製薬・医療
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当調査レポートでは、季節性インフルエンザの疫学的市場予測について調査・分析し、以下の構成でお届けいたします。
・イントロダクション
・季節性インフルエンザの概要
・リスク要因及び併存症
・主要地域の動向
・疫学的予測方法
・季節性インフルエンザの疫学的予測結果(有病率など)
・考察(結論、分析の限界・強み)
【レポートの概要】

EpiCast Report: Seasonal Influenza – Epidemiology Forecast to 2025

Summary

Influenza, commonly known as the flu, is a contagious respiratory illness caused by influenza viruses resulting in mild to severe influenza-like illness. Seasonal influenza affects persons of all ages. Each year, between 5% and 15% of the world’s population is affected by seasonal influenza (WHO, 2013). Complications of influenza include pneumonia, bronchitis, ear infections, sinus infections, and worsening of chronic medical conditions such as congestive heart failure, asthma, or diabetes. Vaccination has been shown to reduce influenza morbidity and mortality and high economic burden associated with influenza illness.

GlobalData epidemiologists identified country-specific population-based studies and government-collated surveillance data to build the influenza forecast, and utilized appropriate proxy data where applicable. Moreover, clinically relevant segmentations are provided for diagnosed incident cases of seasonal influenza, including influenza-like illness (ILI) cases, lab confirmed cases, hospitalized cases, and averted cases. Lastly, uniform diagnostic criteria are utilized for all segmentations across the 7MM using ICD-10 codes J09-J10, and seasonal versus calendar year influenza cases were reconciled, for example, by applying rates from the 2007-2008 influenza season to the 2007 calendar year population.

In the 7MM, GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the seasonal influenza vaccination coverage will increase from 323,457,073 people in 2015 to 344,202,999 people in 2025, at an Annual Growth Rate (AGR) of 0.64%. The US will have the largest population vaccinated for seasonal influenza among the 7MM throughout the forecast period, while Spain will have the lowest. In the 7MM, GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the diagnosed outpatient ILI incident cases will increase from 38,432,598 cases in 2015 to 38,686,403 cases in 2025, at an AGR of 0.07%. GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the influenza cases averted by seasonal influenza vaccinations will increase from 1,801,663 cases in 2015 to 1,858,033 cases in 2025.

Scope

- The Seasonal Influenza EpiCast Report provides an overview of the risk factors, comorbidities, and the global and historical trends for seasonal influenza in the seven major markets (7MM) (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan). It includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the diagnosed incident cases of seasonal influenza segmented by age and sex in the 7MM. Moreover, clinically relevant segmentations are provided for diagnosed incident cases of seasonal influenza, including influenza-like illness (ILI) cases, lab confirmed cases, hospitalized cases, and averted cases. In addition, the report also includes the number of individuals who received the influenza vaccination in the 7MM. For all the 7MM, diagnosed incident cases are segmented by age (0-4 years, 5-17 years, 18-64 years, and =65 years) and sex.
- The seasonal influenza epidemiology report is written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.
- The EpiCast Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 8MM.

Reasons to buy

The Seasonal Influenza EpiCast report will allow you to –
- Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global seasonal influenza market.
- Quantify patient populations in the global seasonal influenza market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.
- Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the age groups and sex that present the best opportunities for seasonal influenza therapeutics in each of the markets covered.

【レポートの目次】

1 Table of Contents
1 Table of Contents 7
1.1 List of Tables 8
1.2 List of Figures 10
2 Epidemiology 11
2.1 Disease Background 11
2.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities 12
2.3 Global Trends 13
2.3.1 Historical Perspective of Vaccination Coverage 14
2.3.2 Laboratory Confirmed Influenza Cases 17
2.3.3 Hospitalization Due to Influenza 17
2.3.4 Influenza Averted Cases 18
2.4 Forecast Methodology 18
2.4.1 Sources Used Tables 19
2.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods 23
2.4.3 Sources Not Used 38
2.5 Epidemiological Forecast for Seasonal Influenza (2015-2025) 38
2.5.1 Seasonal Influenza Vaccination 38
2.5.2 Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Rates 45
2.5.3 Diagnosed Outpatient Influenza-Like Illness Incident Cases 47
2.5.4 Lab Confirmed Incident Cases of Seasonal Influenza 54
2.5.5 Influenza-Related Hospitalized Incident Cases 60
2.5.6 Cases Averted by Seasonal Influenza Vaccinations 65
2.6 Discussion 69
2.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight 69
2.6.2 Limitations of the Analysis 70
2.6.3 Strengths of the Analysis 71
3 Appendix 72
3.1 Bibliography 72
3.2 About the Authors 83
3.2.1 Epidemiologists 83
3.2.2 Reviewers 84
3.2.3 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology 85
3.3 About GlobalData 86
3.4 About EpiCast 86
3.5 Disclaimer 87

1.1 List of Tables
Table 1: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for Seasonal Influenza 13
Table 2: 7MM, Historical Perspective of Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Coverage 16
Table 3: 7MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used to Forecast Total Population Vaccination Rates of Seasonal Influenza 19
Table 4: 7MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used to Forecast Diagnosed Incident Cases of Outpatient Seasonal ILI 20
Table 5: 7MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used to Forecast Laboratory Confirmed Incident Cases of Seasonal Influenza 21
Table 6: 7MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used to Forecast Seasonal Influenza-Related Hospitalized Incident Cases 22
Table 7: 7MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used to Forecast Averted Cases of Seasonal Influenza 23
Table 8: 7MM, Sources Not Used in Epidemiological Analysis of Seasonal Influenza 38
Table 9: 7MM, People Receiving Seasonal Influenza Vaccination, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Selected Years 2015-2025 39
Table 10: 7MM, Age-Specific Distribution of People Receiving Seasonal Influenza Vaccination, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2015 41
Table 11: 7MM, Sex-Specific Distribution of People Receiving Seasonal Influenza Vaccination, All Ages, N (Row %), 2015 43
Table 12: 7MM, Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Rates, All Ages, Both Sexes, %, Selected Years 2015-2025 45
Table 13: 7MM, Age-Specific Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Rates, Both Sexes, (%), 2015 46
Table 14: 7MM, Diagnosed Outpatient ILI Incident Cases, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Selected Years 2015-2025 48
Table 15: 7MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Outpatient ILI Incident Cases, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2015 50
Table 16: 7MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Outpatient ILI Incident Cases, All Ages, N (Row %), 2015 52
Table 17: 7MM, Lab Confirmed Incident Cases of Seasonal Influenza, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Selected Years 2015-2025 55
Table 18: 7MM, Age-Specific Lab Confirmed Incident Cases of Seasonal Influenza, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2015 57
Table 19: 7MM, Lab Confirmed Incident Cases of Seasonal Influenza, All Ages, N (Row %), 2015 59
Table 20: 7MM, Influenza-Related Hospitalized Incident Cases, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Selected Years 2015-2025 61
Table 21: 7MM, Age-Specific Influenza-Related Hospitalized Incident Cases, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2015 62
Table 22: 7MM, Influenza Related Hospitalized Incident Cases, All Ages, N (Row %), 2015 64
Table 23: 7MM, Cases Averted by Seasonal Influenza Vaccinations, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Selected Years 2015-2025 66
Table 24: 7MM, Age-Specific Cases Averted by Seasonal Influenza Vaccinations, Both Sexes, N (Row %), 2015 68

1.2 List of Figures
Figure 1: 7MM, Cases with Seasonal Influenza Vaccination, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, 2015-2025 40
Figure 2: 7MM, Age-Specific Cases with Seasonal Influenza Vaccination, Both Sexes, N, 2015 42
Figure 3: 7MM, Sex-Specific Distribution of People Receiving Seasonal Influenza Vaccination, All Ages, N, 2015 44
Figure 4: 7MM, Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Rates, All Ages, Both Sexes, %, 2015-2025 45
Figure 5: 7MM, Age-Specific Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Rates, Both Sexes, (%), 2015 46
Figure 6: 7MM, Diagnosed Outpatient ILI Incident Cases, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Selected Years 2015-2025 48
Figure 7: 7MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Outpatient ILI Incident Cases, Both Sexes, N, 2015 51
Figure 8: 7MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Outpatient ILI Incident Cases, All Ages, N, 2015 53
Figure 9: 7MM, Age-Standardized Diagnosed Outpatient ILI Incidence, All Ages, Cases per 100,000 Population, 2015 54
Figure 10: 7MM, Lab Confirmed Incident Cases of Seasonal Influenza, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Selected Years 2015-2025 56
Figure 11: 7MM, Age-Specific Lab Confirmed Incident Cases of Seasonal Influenza, Both Sexes, N, 2015 58
Figure 12: 7MM, Lab Confirmed Incident Cases of Seasonal Influenza, All Ages, N, 2015 60
Figure 13: 7MM, Influenza-Related Hospitalized Incident Cases, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Selected Years 2015-2025 61
Figure 14: 7MM, Age-Specific Influenza-Related Hospitalized Incident Cases, Both Sexes, N, 2015 63
Figure 15: 7MM, Influenza-Related Hospitalized Incident Cases, All Ages, N, 2015 65
Figure 16: 7MM, Cases Averted by Seasonal Influenza Vaccinations, All Ages, Both Sexes, N, Selected Years 2015-2025 67
Figure 17: 7MM, Age-Specific Cases Averted by Seasonal Influenza Vaccinations, Both Sexes, N, 2015 69

【レポートのキーワード】

季節性インフルエンザ

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