◆英語タイトル：Product Tanker Market Annual Review and Forecast 2015/16
◆発行会社（調査会社）：Drewry Shipping Consultants
In recent years, important developments such as – the advent of US shale oil, a progressive eastward shift in the refining sector, the structural changes in demand in developed world, and growing scepticism regarding the economic health of developing nations, besides another round of high tonnage ordering and widespread switching of “swing” product/chemical tankers to products trade – have impacted, either positively or negatively, the trading patterns and freight market for product tankers.
This report dissects the complex products seaborne trade to reveal – for the first time – the individual growth trajectories of its main components – naphtha, gasoline, jet fuel (kerosene), gasoil (diesel) and fuel oil.
It illustrates how the map of seaborne refined products movements has been radically redrawn in recent years to accommodate profound shifts in supply and demand for refined products.
It also presents our detailed analysis on actual products-trading fleet, which has been determined using our latest two-step methodology for fleet classification – whereby the fleet is first classified according to technical vessel specifications (such as IMO class, type of tank coating, average tank size etc.) and then on the basis of the current trading status of each vessel (whether carrying refined products, chemicals or crude oil).
This report studies the impact of the recent developments on variables fundamental to the product tanker market, with an aim to scrutinize the speculations which have been stimulating shipowners’ and investors’ interest.
It establishes a prognosis and provides 5-year projections of key market indicators such as refined products supply, demand, balance, trade, and tonne-mile demand, tonnage supply and freight rates.
*** Report Descriptions ***
The ongoing revolution in the US oil and gas sector, rapidly rising Asian demand (underpinned in part by “automobilisation”), a refining industry undergoing major structural transformation, and the prospect of significant regulatory and technological changes mean that the map of seaborne refined products movements will continue to change. For example, the US went from being the largest seaborne importer in 2008 to the largest seaborne exporter of refined products by 2012.
The refined products seaborne trade has expanded steadily since the 2008-09 economic recession, rising by about 4% every year, reinstating the investors’ interest in the oil tanker shipping market.
Further, the products trade market looks set for a period of continued growth (albeit a bit slower this time). Behind the screen, lies the complex framework of trade routes for individual refined products, the flow and volume of cargoes for which are governed by the variations in supply and demand balances across different regions.
On the other hand, the products tanker fleet has expanded rapidly in recent years, with a large quantum of “swing” tonnage (capable of carrying both chemicals and refined products) moving into the products trade. The fleet trading in products has risen at a firm 4% per annum since 2010. Moreover, the hefty orderbooks for “product” tankers and “product/chemical” tankers suggest that fleet expansions rates will remain high over the near term.
• How the refined products supply-demand balances will perform across different regions?
• What impact will these changes in products balances have on their trade flows and the total refined products trade?
• Where will the displaced trade flows be redirected to? Whether we will witness a boost in long-haul and intra-regional products trade?
• Is all the talk about product tanker market expansion supported by fact, or is it just hype?
• How much “swing” tonnage has moved into products trade? And what are its implications?
• Is the current strength in freight rates sustainable, and is there room for further improvement?
In this report Drewry presents its in-depth analysis and views on all such vital questions and produces forecasts that attempt to make sense of how the product tanker market will evolve over the next five years.
1. Executive summary: New deliveries blunt
freight rate rises
2. Products demand and supply
• Demand overview
• Naphtha demand
• Gasoline demand
• Jet fuel-kerosene demand
• Gasoil demand
• Fuel oil demand
• Implications of changing bunker demand
• Products supply and balances
3. Products trade
• Overview of products seaborne trade
• Seaborne products trade by commodity
• Gasoil (Diesel)
• Jet fuel-kerosene
• Fuel oil
• World refining capacity
• Summary of planned refinery changes
• Strength of the refinery industry by region
• Factors influencing future trade development
• Low-sulphur bunker standards
• Low oil prices
• Debates on US crude oil exports ban
• The widening of the Panama canal
• Other factors
• Forecast trade volume and patterns – 2020
• Primary factors that might alter the forecast
• Methodology for seaborne trade forecast
• Conclusions from seaborne trade forecast
• Seaborne trade forecasts by product type
4. Product tanker fleet
• Classification on the basis of trading status
• Product tanker fleet by trading status
5. Freight and asset markets
• Tonnage demand
• Tonnage supply
• Tonnage utilisation
• Freight rates
• Asset market
• Regional groupings for trade matrices